Poll Results

2008-01-24
Kevin Chappell

EBONY/JET POLL SHOWS OBAMA WELL AHEAD IN SOUTH CAROLINA
Black voters call Obama most 'honest and trustworthy,' but say Clinton has 'best experience'

In one of the last polls before the state’s Democratic primary Jan. 26, EBONY and JET Magazines found that potential voters in South Carolina have a strong, 10-point preference for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to be the next president, and the gap widens to more than 30 points among Black voters.

The Ebony/Jet poll of 600 Black and White respondents spotlights the interests and preferences of Black voters, who are expected to account for as much as 55 percent of the Democratic vote on primary day in South Carolina. It was conducted in conjunction with veteran DC-based pollster Ron Lester & Associates, and was taken over the four-day period of Jan. 19-22. The Ebony/Jet poll has a margin of error of +- 2.9 percent.        

A key finding among all poll respondents was that 37 percent pick Obama over Clinton, who had 27 percent, and John Edwards, with 15 percent, in South Carolina. When Blacks were asked, 53 percent said they would vote for Obama, 21 percent for Clinton and 3 percent for Edwards. At least 22 percent of voters overall and 24 percent of Black voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for or had not yet made up their mind.

However, Whites support Clinton more than 2-to-1 over Obama, and White women widen that gap to 38 percent for Clinton, 15 percent for Obama and 28 percent for Edwards.

Overall, Obama’s support may run deeper than Clinton’s. Of those who support Obama, 29 percent say they do so enthusiastically, while only 20 percent say the same for Clinton.

Younger voters, the heart of Obama’s campaign, are still a source of his support in South Carolina. For instance, among Black men under 45, 75 percent of the respondents supported Obama, with only 15 percent supporting Clinton and 3 percent backing Edwards. Those results fall in line with months of interviews by EBONY and JET Magazines in which many Black men see themselves in Obama and feel a connection with him.

Black women, who make up the bulk of the Black vote in South Carolina, support Obama more than 2-to-1 over Clinton. However, among single Black mothers, the gap is much narrower, with Obama getting top rating with 35 percent of the respondents to Clinton’s 32 percent.

Obama had strong support among Black churchgoers, with 52 percent of regular churchgoers (those who attend 2 or more times a week) supporting Obama, and 61 percent of Blacks who attend church occasionally (once a week or less) supporting his candidacy.

While a greater percentage (49 percent) said Clinton had the best experience, more respondents (39 percent) said Obama had a better vision for the country than the other Democratic candidates. Nearly twice the respondents thought that Obama was also more honest and trustworthy.

A greater number of potential voters questioned (39 percent) said that they think that setting the right tone and vision is important, but it is more important to have the experience to manage (51 percent) and run the bureaucracy in Washington, D.C.

When asked which key issues concern them the most, 37 percent of the voters polled ranked the economy at the top, while 23 percent said the situation in Iraq was important, and 18 percent cited health care as the most important.

When asked about their opinions of the major players and surrogates in the Democratic race, former President Bill Clinton had a higher favorable rating than candidate Edwards and talk show host Oprah Winfrey, but lower than Hillary Clinton and Obama. Hillary Clinton was seen as favorable to 78 percent of respondents, compared to Obama’s 76 percent and Bill Clinton’s 75 percent. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, had a 70 percent favorable rating. At least 67 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Winfrey, a public supporter of Obama’s.

Read the full poll results