Iowa Blues
everybody's talking about who's going to win. what happens to the people who lose?
2008-01-03
By Eric Easter

Despite the efforts of all the other states in the Union, once again it all comes down to Iowa.

Only a year ago, major political figures were talking of throwing Iowa to the side and running “national campaigns” that embraced the diversity of America, the urban, the suburban, the rural.

What happened? The Democratic Establishment happened. In the minds of the people at the Democratic National Committee, a long running primary only means confusion. The longer it goes on, the more ill-defined the Democratic message as candidates battle one another for supremacy. For them, the sooner we have a nominee the better. Hence, Iowa. All that work, the long nights, the bad coffee, the stale pizza, the policy arguments, the lost friends, comes down to one day.

And in the midst of everyone predicting winners, what about the fortunes of the losers?

A political race is akin to a horse race, and in Iowa you have to win, place or show to consider yourself viable to move on. And depending on the percentages, even #2 and #3 can be a huge loss.

For the campaigns that come in below 4th place, this is fundamentally it.

Unless you’ve been through it, it’s hard to describe how tough it is to be on a losing campaign. At the presidential level, true believers routinely quit jobs, risk relationships, damage credit and stake their whole careers on the hope that their candidate will be victorious and they will be able to claim that they had a real part in bringing that person to victory. No doubt a cushy White House appointment is also in the back of their minds.

And no matter what the numbers may say, staffers hold on to that hope until the very last minute. And why not?  We’ve all seen last-minute comebacks. And didn’t we think Al Gore won until the next morning?

But this Friday, reality will set it in for all but a few lucky folks. The unlucky will be unemployed – right away.  Secretaries who sold their Volkswagens to work the phones will be asked to leave as soon as possible. Those who take their time getting back to headquarters will find their stuff packed up and ready to go.  Tears will be shed, phone numbers taken and some deputy campaign manager will ask you for all of your computer and written records so it remains the property of the campaign.

The second thing that happens? The phone stops ringing, almost immediately. Vultures and Ebayers call to get the last dregs of campaign swag, but the press calls dry up and so do the calls of support.

Next, the money gets funny. Anyone expecting a paycheck this Friday should make other plans. Printing companies, copier leasing people and whoever rented the headquarters to the campaign will come calling for final payments – and they come first, then the top staff, then the lower level staffers. If you sprung for pizza, don’t expect to get reimbursed for six months. If you’re a consultant – forget your money, find a new candidate.

The big money gets funny as well. That’s because the net impact of losing is that fundraising dries up immediately. A candidate with goodwill will be able to squeeze $1,000 here and there from close supporters to pay off debts, but the big players (who likely spread the wealth to two or three others to hedge their bets) will have moved on by the end of polling on Thursday night.

At this moment, even as they make a last ditch effort for their guy (or woman), every staffer on every campaign is or should be having secret talks with well-placed friends on their favorite opposition campaign – just in case.

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Eric Easter posits equally sunny scenarios on culture and technology for ebonyjet.com.